Year-by-year projection
Modeled Price vs Remaining BTC
Quick visual: BTC price climbs while your stack is gradually spent down.
CAGR over years
Growth rate decays toward maturity.
Withdrawal % over years
Draw rate as a share of the remaining portfolio.
Compare all models — see how each model's CAGR slope differs
Models 1–4 are CAGR-based (warm lines); models 5–7 are Power-Law-based (cool lines). Some start with a higher growth rate but decay faster, while others start lower and decay more gently — the chart makes those slope differences easy to see.
| Year | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 |
|---|
How it works & why — the models, and why we don't start from today's price
Why not start from today's Bitcoin price?
Bitcoin is volatile, so picking a single day's price would skew every projection — start near a cycle top and results look amazing; start near a bottom and they look grim. Instead we start from an average / fair-value anchor:
- CAGR models (1–4) start from the True Market Mean (currently …) — a value Bitcoin spends about half its time above and half below, smoothing the 4-year bull/bear cycle. See it live on the True Market Mean / AVIV chart.
- Power-Law models (5–7) start from a modeled end-of-… price along Bitcoin's long-term Power Law (Model 5 = Middle …, Model 6 = Median …, Model 7 = Bottom …).
Why CAGR instead of yearly returns?
A smooth Compound Annual Growth Rate avoids modeling Bitcoin's wild single-year swings. For example, a 24% CAGR over 4 years is the same end result as +100% for three years then −70% in the fourth — much easier to reason about for planning.
The two model families
Models 1–4 (CAGR-based) use growth rates that decrease smoothly over 30 years, from most aggressive (1) to least (4).
Models 5–7 (Power-Law-based) have a similar decreasing shape but start at different modeled prices, from most aggressive (5) to most conservative (7). Model 6 (Balanced) is the default — a conservative median line that gives reasonable early-year prices and diminishing returns later, which keeps retirement planning realistic.
Want even more control? Use Advanced in the Growth model section to set a fixed CAGR or your own min/max range. See the Power Law chart for background.